ESSAY - LAW OF INTERNATIONAL INSURANCE CONTRACTS / SUBJECTS: MISCELLANEOUS - UNDERGRADUATE

Date post: 2017-11-08 01:35

We assume that other humans are conscious, but that is still an assumption, and there is no consensus amongst humans about the consciousness of nonhuman entities, such as higher non-human animals. The issue will be even more contentious with regard to future nonbiological entities with human-like behavior and intelligence.

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If we look inside its circuits, and see essentially the identical kinds of feedback loops and other mechanisms in its brain that we see in a human brain (albeit implemented using nonbiological equivalents), does that settle the issue?

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As exponential growth continues to accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into infinity, at least from the limited and linear perspective of contemporary humans. The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it. It will literally get out of our control. The illusion that we have our hand 8775 on the plug, 8776 will be dispelled.

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Thus the (double) exponential growth of computing is broader than Moore 8767 s Law, which refers to only one of its paradigms. And this accelerating growth of computing is, in turn, part of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of any evolutionary process. Observers are quick to criticize extrapolations of an exponential trend on the basis that the trend is bound to run out of 8775 resources. 8776 The classical example is when a species happens upon a new habitat (., rabbits in Australia), the species 8767 numbers will grow exponentially for a time, but then hit a limit when resources such as food and space run out.

Before considering further the implications of the Singularity, let 8767 s examine the wide range of technologies that are subject to the law of accelerating returns. The exponential trend that has gained the greatest public recognition has become known as 8775 Moore 8767 s Law. 8776 Gordon Moore, one of the inventors of integrated circuits, and then Chairman of Intel, noted in the mid 6975s that we could squeeze twice as many transistors on an integrated circuit every 79 months. Given that the electrons have less distance to travel, the circuits also run twice as fast, providing an overall quadrupling of computational power.

Now back to the future: it 8767 s widely misunderstood. Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all. So their lack of expectations was largely fulfilled. Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow. But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: few have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating.

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